The Doomsday Clock came into existence in 1947. It is a metaphor for how close humanity is, to destroying our world with technology of our own creation. With midnight being “doomsday”, at initial conception, the clock was set at 7 minutes to midnight, with the greatest threat at the time being Atomic weapons. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the clock was also set at 7 minutes to midnight. In 1963, when the US and Soviet Union signed a treaty to stop atmospheric nuclear testing, the clock moved to 12 minutes to midnight. The clock moves regularly with the time decided by a board of scientists, including more than 12 Nobel Laureates, and international experts in key technologies. Since the turn of the century, escalating politics has meant that the clock has ticked closer to midnight. It currently sits at 89 seconds to midnight and is the closest it has ever been…
There are some in the Prime Central London property market who are doomsayers, and there is no denying that Trump is causing waves globally creating much uncertainty. The Labour government is dampening the economy and there are some who are leaving the UK for tax reasons. But uncertainty is relative. At Maskells, we are continuing to see a healthy run of interest in the market and of particular note is an influx of buyers from the USA; around 30% of the sales we currently have under offer are to American buyers. Being mindful of the fact that there is often “hot air” produced by agents, we have agreed a greater combined value of sales in the first 10 weeks of this year, than we did in the second half of 2024. Much of this comes from forward thinking advice – there is no doubting that values have changed, perhaps faster than many expected, creating a scenario where many properties are sitting unsold. Looking this week at LonRes, our inter-agent brokerage, there are 117 houses listed for sale between £5m and £8m in our core area of operation. 6 of these are marked as under offer, representing just over 5%, when we would usually see around 15% under offer. There are some who say there isn’t a market. We find that there absolutely is a market:
A metric we like to look at is our “viewing to offer” ratio – a yardstick on the level of commitment in the market. A sensibly functioning market usually sees around 10 viewings per offer. Over the last 3 months, our viewing to offer ratio has been just 6 to 1. Which is encouraging indeed. The number of buyers out looking at properties has reduced, which is no surprise, as discretionary buyers observe. But looking YOY, our offer numbers are roughly similar reflecting a marked increase in the percentage of active buyers making offers – those buyers in the market are highly focused and when they see the right property, at the right price, are prepared to commit and often compete. Indeed, it is a continuing theme that properties come to the market at prices where the market is disagreeing on values and offers are hard to extract. A price is then adjusted and multiple offers come in – there absolutely is a market. It simply takes the right advice.
Whilst on the surface, the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight might raise an eyebrow or two. But since 2002, the average time until midnight has been just 3.33 minutes. Since the first lockdown, now almost half a decade ago, the clock has been at 100 seconds or less. An uneasy climate is something that we are used to and while sensationalist headlines rule the day, this is a time for calm heads and sound strategic advice - we continue to deliver for our clients. Through clarity of thought and our deep understanding of market dynamics from six decades of experience, Maskells is creating a market through a proactive and forward-thinking approach, rather than one that is reactionary.
Doomsday – no. An opportunity for the best to really shine and make a difference, yes.